| 摘要: |
| 目的:探究世界级空手道组手运动员竞技表现对比赛胜负的影响,旨在筛选出关键指标并建立比赛胜负判别方程。方法:选取东京奥运会空手道项目121场组手比赛作为研究样本,采用秩相关与逐步判别分析法进行指标筛选并建立判别方程。结果:①首先得分获胜、3分成功率、1分成功率是影响女子组比赛结果的关键指标,首先得分获胜、上段、中段、3分成功率是判别男子组比赛胜负的关键指标；②领先、首先得分获胜、3分得分率、1分成功率对小级别组获胜有重要作用,首先得分获胜、单个技术对判别中级别组比赛胜负有非常显著性影响,首先得分获胜、1分成功率、单个技术是影响大级别比赛结果的关键指标。结论:首先得分是预测比赛结果的最核心指标；女子运动员应注重1分技术和3分技术的得分能力,男子运动员重点强化3分技术的运用；各级别运动员应重点考虑将本级别关键指标与不同性别关键指标相结合进行针对性训练。 |
| 关键词: 东京奥运会 空手道 竞技表现 比赛结果 判别方程 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2022-06-13 |
| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学研究项目(20YJC890042)；沧州师范学院科研创新团队资助项目；沧州师范学院校内科研基金(XNJJWQN2021001)；河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(SQ2021103) |
|
| An Empirical Study on the Influence of Competitive Performance of World-Class Karate Athletes on the Outcome of Competition ——Taking Tokyo Olympic Games as an Example |
| ZHANG Ran,ZHANG Nan |
| (Tianjin University of Sport, Tianjin 301617, China;Cangzhou Normal University, Cangzhou 061001,China) |
| Abstract: |
| Objectives: The aim of exploring the influence of competitive performance of world-class karate group players on the outcome of the competition is to screen out the key indicators and establish the discriminant equation to predict the outcome of the competition. Methods:121 karate events in Tokyo Olympic Games were selected as research samples. The rank correlation and stepwise discriminant analysis were used to screen indicators and establish discriminant equations. Results: ①The first score to win, 3 score success rate and 1 score success rate were the key indexes affecting the results of women’s group; the first score to win, upper section, middle section and 3 score success rate are the key indicators to judge the outcome of the men’s competition. ②Leading, the first score to win, 3 score success rate and 1 score success rate play an important role in winning a match at a low-weight level; the first score to win and single technique have a very significant influence on judging the winner of middle level competition; the first score to win, 1 score success rate and single technique are the key indicators that affect the result of the high-weight Level competition. Conclusions: The first score is the most important index to predict the result of the match. Female athletes should pay attention to the scoring ability of 1-point technique and 3-point technique, while male athletes focus on strengthening the application of 3-point technique. At the same time, athletes at all levels should focus on combining the key indicators of their own level with those of different genders for targeted training. |
| Key words: Tokyo Olympics karate competitive performance result discriminant equation |
